Sport Picks
Alianza vs Millonarios
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar 
Match Events
19'
19'
Rosales Y.
20'
20'
Lasso J.
41'
41'
Llinas A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Primera A matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
9%
35%
56%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Millonarios
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Millonarios have won more games recently than Alianza.
- Win probability leans Millonarios's way, sitting at 70%.
- Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Alianza Clean Sheet 17%
Millonarios Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alianza | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 5 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.85 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.37 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.51 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Primera A
Alianza vs Millonarios
2:2
Sep 13, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Millonarios
3:0
Mar 30, 2025 Primera A
Millonarios vs Alianza
2:0
Jul 28, 2024 Primera A
Alianza vs Millonarios
2:1
Jan 31, 2024 Primera A
Millonarios vs Alianza
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alianza Compare
Top Goalscorer Londono Y.
1 Goals Assists Leader Franco P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.39
Avg xA / game 0.26
Millonarios Compare
Top Goalscorer Contreras R.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alianza 15 / 100
Millonarios 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alianza Millonarios
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Millonarios Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Millonarios's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Alianza's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Solid form: Alianza remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Alianza VS Millonarios
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Alianza
(Home) 10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Alianza
03 Sept
America De Cali
3 : 0 Alianza
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
26 Aug
Cucuta
1 : 0 Alianza
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0 Dep. Pereira
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0 Dep. Pereira
09 Aug
Alianza
2 : 3 Bucaramanga
01 Aug
Alianza
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
26 Jul
Alianza
1 : 1 Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
Page 1 of 3
Millonarios
(Away) 06 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 1 Millonarios
03 Sept
Santa Fe
3 : 2 Millonarios
30 Aug
Millonarios
0 : 0 Inter Bogotá
27 Aug
Llaneros
0 : 2 Millonarios
22 Aug
Aguilas Doradas
1 : 1 Millonarios
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 1 Millonarios
03 Sept
Santa Fe
3 : 2 Millonarios
27 Aug
Llaneros
0 : 2 Millonarios
22 Aug
Aguilas Doradas
1 : 1 Millonarios
02 Aug
Junior
0 : 1 Millonarios
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atl. Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Dep. Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America De Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Inter Bogotá | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Dep. Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Ind. Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Aguilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Dep. Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | 10 |
Promotion - Primera A (Apertura - Play Offs)
