Sport Picks

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Alianza vs Santa Fe

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
09:05 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alianza host Santa Fe in the Primera A. This one's hard to separate. Santa Fe have shipped 0.94 goals a game lately, while Alianza have conceded 1.48 and scored 0.83. Past meetings favor Santa Fe slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 15, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (0.56 xG vs 1.44) point toward Santa Fe. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Alianza
35%
Draws
58%
Santa Fe
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santa Fe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Fe have won more games recently than Alianza.
  • Santa Fe are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Alianza Clean Sheet 16%
Santa Fe Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alianza Santa Fe
Matches Played 29 36
Wins 5 15
Draws 11 15
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 0.83 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.48 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Primera A
Santa Fe vs Alianza
1:1
Nov 14, 2025 Primera A
Santa Fe vs Alianza
1:0
Sep 10, 2025 Copa Colombia
Santa Fe vs Alianza
4:1
Aug 28, 2025 Copa Colombia
Alianza vs Santa Fe
1:1
May 25, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Santa Fe
6:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianza 11 / 100
Santa Fe 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alianza Santa Fe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Fe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Santa Fe has conceded goals in 69% of their last 36 outings.

Attacking prowess: Alianza scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Alianza has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alianza VS Santa Fe
0.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alianza

(Home)
10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0
Alianza
03 Sept
America De Cali
3 : 0
Alianza
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5
Atl. Nacional
26 Aug
Cucuta
1 : 0
Alianza
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0
Dep. Pereira
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Santa Fe

(Away)
08 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 0
Vasco
05 Sept
Santa Fe
2 : 2
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
03 Sept
Santa Fe
3 : 2
Millonarios
29 Aug
Junior
1 : 1
Santa Fe
27 Aug
River Plate
1 : 2
Santa Fe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America De Cali 8 6 2 0 20:4 20
2 Deportes Tolima 8 5 1 2 12:9 16
3 Ind. Medellin 6 5 0 1 12:6 15
4 Santa Fe 8 3 4 1 12:9 13
5 Millonarios 9 3 4 2 10:7 13
6 Atl. Nacional 5 4 0 1 12:4 12
7 Llaneros 8 3 2 3 9:9 11
8 Aguilas Doradas 6 2 4 0 10:8 10
9 Bucaramanga 6 2 4 0 7:5 10
10 Once Caldas 7 2 3 2 11:9 9
11 Dep. Cali 7 2 3 2 9:7 9
12 Cucuta 8 2 3 3 8:13 9
13 Fortaleza C.E.I.F. 9 1 5 3 10:12 8
14 Inter Bogotá 8 1 5 2 8:10 8
15 Jaguares de Cordoba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
16 Dep. Pereira 6 1 3 2 3:6 6
17 Chico 6 1 2 3 4:12 5
18 Junior 6 0 3 3 8:12 3
19 Dep. Pasto 8 0 2 6 7:15 2
20 Alianza 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)