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Almagro vs Atl. Rafaela Prediction & H2H Stats

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Tres de Febrero, Jose Ingenieros
Almagro Logo

Almagro

1 - 0
FT
Atl. Rafaela Logo

Atl. Rafaela

Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Busto L.
53'
Bustos J.
54'
Cainelli N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Almagro in this Primera Nacional matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Almagro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Almagro
15%
Draws
51%
Atl. Rafaela
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atl. Rafaela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Almagro average 0.93 goals a game right now, well clear of Atl. Rafaela's 0.79.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Almagro have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Almagro Clean Sheet 68%
Atl. Rafaela Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almagro Atl. Rafaela
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.93 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.21 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Primera Nacional
Almagro vs Atl. Rafaela
1:0
Feb 14, 2026 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Almagro
0:0
Aug 18, 2024 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Almagro
2:3
Mar 30, 2024 Primera Nacional
Almagro vs Atl. Rafaela
1:0
Apr 17, 2022 Primera Nacional
Almagro vs Atl. Rafaela
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almagro Compare

Top Goalscorer Dornell T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Atl. Rafaela Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almagro 42 / 100
Atl. Rafaela 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almagro Atl. Rafaela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Almagro scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Atl. Rafaela has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Atl. Rafaela has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Almagro VS Atl. Rafaela
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Almagro

(Home)
27 Sept
Almagro
0 : 1
Nueva Chicago
19 Sept
Temperley
3 : 1
Almagro
12 Sept
Almagro
2 : 2
Deportivo Maipu
06 Sept
Almagro
1 : 2
Gimnasia Jujuy
30 Aug
Patronato
0 : 1
Almagro
Page 1 of 6

Atl. Rafaela

(Away)
27 Sept
Gimnasia y Tiro
1 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
19 Sept
Atl. Rafaela
4 : 2
San Martin T.
13 Sept
Gimnasia Jujuy
2 : 1
Atl. Rafaela
06 Sept
Agropecuario
2 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
29 Aug
Atl. Rafaela
2 : 1
Tristan Suarez
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 32 18 7 7 36:27 61
2 Deportivo Moron 31 16 7 8 49:31 55
3 Deportivo Madryn 32 14 11 7 46:28 53
4 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 40:28 53
5 Colon Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 38:25 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 23:18 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 29:26 45
8 Ciudad Bolivar 31 10 12 9 26:28 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 24:21 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 28:31 36
11 Defensores de Belgrano 31 8 12 11 23:27 36
12 Racing Cordoba 31 9 9 13 28:38 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 25:34 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 17:26 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 19:28 32
16 CA Mitre 31 6 14 11 27:39 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 25:36 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 22:34 29
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tristan Suarez 31 15 12 4 32:15 57
2 Gimnasia Jujuy 31 15 9 7 47:38 54
3 Temperley 31 14 11 6 36:25 53
4 Atletico Atlanta 31 16 4 11 35:28 52
5 Gimnasia y Tiro 31 13 9 9 32:27 48
6 Midland 31 13 8 10 34:26 47
7 San Martin S.J. 31 12 9 10 33:30 45
8 Deportivo Maipu 31 12 8 11 38:31 44
9 Colegiales 31 12 7 12 31:31 43
10 Atl. Rafaela 31 11 9 11 25:27 42
11 San Martin T. 31 9 13 9 34:32 40
12 Quilmes 31 10 8 13 30:27 38
13 Nueva Chicago 31 9 9 13 23:29 36
14 Agropecuario 31 9 9 13 26:35 36
15 Almagro 31 9 8 14 26:37 35
16 Patronato 31 6 16 9 27:31 34
17 Chacarita Juniors 31 8 6 17 23:33 30
18 Club Atletico Guemes 31 5 8 18 23:53 23
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)