Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Almere City vs De Graafschap

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Yanmar Stadion, Almere
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Sub
Niemeijer R. In: de Jong F.
Out: Niemeijer R.
32' Event
Poku E.
Assist: Jacobs Ja.
45' Event
de Jong F.
Assist: Kok T.

AI Match Summary

Almere City in this Eredivisie 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Almere City
15%
Draws
17%
De Graafschap
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Almere City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • De Graafschap haven't matched Almere City's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Almere City's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Almere City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Almere City, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Almere City Clean Sheet 16%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almere City De Graafschap
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 3 6
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 2.22 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.48 2.29
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Almere City
1:4
May 9, 2026 Eredivisie
De Graafschap vs Almere City
2:2
May 6, 2026 Eredivisie
Almere City vs De Graafschap
3:1
Jan 18, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Almere City vs De Graafschap
2:0
Sep 29, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Almere City
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almere City Compare

Top Goalscorer Poku E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Dors M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

De Graafschap Compare

Top Goalscorer de Jong F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almere City 84 / 100
De Graafschap 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almere City De Graafschap

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Almere City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Almere City found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).

De Graafschap has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Almere City stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Almere City VS De Graafschap
2.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Almere City

(Home)
11 Sept
Maastricht
0 : 4
Almere City
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
29 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 4
Almere City
21 Aug
Vitesse
0 : 3
Almere City
14 Aug
Almere City
3 : 1
Jong PSV
Page 1 of 6

De Graafschap

(Away)
11 Sept
FC Emmen
1 : 2
De Graafschap
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0
De Graafschap
29 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 4
Almere City
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1
De Graafschap
17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5
Jong AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Roda 2
Waalwijk 3
TBD -
Willem II -
Den Bosch 2
Almere City 6
TBD -
De Graafschap -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Quarter-finals
Waalwijk 1
Willem II 2
Almere City 5
De Graafschap 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Semi-finals
Willem II 3
Almere City 0
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Final
Willem II 4
FC Volendam 3