Sport Picks

Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 Yanmar Stadion

Helmond Sport

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Almere City play Helmond Sport in the Eerste Divisie 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Almere City averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Helmond Sport averaged 1 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. In past meetings, Almere City won 1, Helmond Sport won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 13, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.57 for Almere City and 1.03 for Helmond Sport. This points to a Almere City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Almere City

21%

Draws

29%

Helmond Sport

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Almere City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Almere City picked up more points recently compared to Helmond Sport.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.57 vs 1.03 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 63%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Almere City Clean Sheet 23%

Helmond Sport Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Almere City	Helmond Sport
Matches Played	27	28
Wins	13	5
Draws	3	9
Losses	11	14
Goals Scored	1.93	1
Goals Conceded	1.63	1.79
Expected Goals (xG)	2.00	0.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Eerste Divisie

Almere City vs Helmond Sport

Possession: 50% - 47% Cards: 1 - 3

0:1

Oct 3, 2025 Eerste Divisie

Helmond Sport vs Almere City

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Feb 17, 2023 Eerste Divisie

Almere City vs Helmond Sport

Possession: 57% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Sep 2, 2022 Eerste Divisie

Helmond Sport vs Almere City

Possession: 53% - 42% Cards: 2 - 3

3:0

Mar 11, 2022 Eerste Divisie

Almere City vs Helmond Sport

Possession: 42% - 57% Cards: 0 - 2

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almere City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54

Avg xA / game 1

Helmond Sport Compare

Top Goalscorer Makanza N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.52

Avg xA / game 0.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almere City 50 / 100

Helmond Sport 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Almere City Helmond Sport

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Almere City or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19%

2.38

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.3%

1.75

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Almere City attacking → ← attacking Helmond Sport

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Almere City scored in 89% of their last 27 games.

Helmond Sport let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Almere City went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Helmond Sport lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 24

2.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.57

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Den Haag	38	29	2	7	90:37	89
2	Cambuur	38	23	9	6	75:48	78
3	Willem II	38	20	8	10	59:42	68
4	De Graafschap	38	18	9	11	74:58	63
5	Almere City	38	18	4	16	78:63	58
6	Waalwijk	38	16	10	12	71:59	58
7	Jong PSV	38	17	5	16	66:64	56
8	Roda	38	14	13	11	59:54	55
9	Den Bosch	38	14	9	15	65:69	51
10	Dordrecht	38	12	11	15	48:56	47
11	Eindhoven FC	38	14	5	19	51:69	47
12	Jong Utrecht	38	12	10	16	58:62	46
13	Venlo	38	13	6	19	50:58	45
14	FC Emmen	38	12	9	17	58:72	45
15	Vitesse	38	15	11	12	64:55	44
16	TOP Oss	38	11	11	16	54:64	44
17	Jong AZ Alkmaar	38	12	4	22	61:76	40
18	Helmond Sport	38	10	9	19	42:62	39
19	Maastricht	38	9	11	18	41:73	38
20	Jong Ajax	38	9	8	21	50:73	35