Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Almere City vs Jong Ajax

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie Yanmar Stadion, Almere
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Druijf F.
Penalty Missed
45'
Sub
Verkuijl M. In: Peters T.
Out: Verkuijl M.
49'
Sub
Abdalla M. In: Acheampong L.
Out: Abdalla M.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie game between Almere City and Jong Ajax finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jong Ajax.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Almere City
20%
Draws
29%
Jong Ajax
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Almere City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Almere City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Almere City a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Almere City Clean Sheet 68%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almere City Jong Ajax
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 3 4
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 2.17 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.52 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Almere City vs Jong Ajax
0:1
Mar 20, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Almere City
0:2
Dec 5, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Almere City vs Jong Ajax
3:2
Mar 17, 2023 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Almere City
0:2
Oct 14, 2022 Eerste Divisie
Almere City vs Jong Ajax
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almere City Compare

Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Jong Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Monserrate J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almere City 95 / 100
Jong Ajax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almere City Jong Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Almere City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 7:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Almere City scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Jong Ajax's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Almere City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Almere City VS Jong Ajax
2.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Almere City

(Home)
25 Sept
Dordrecht
3 : 2
Almere City
18 Sept
Almere City
1 : 0
Heracles
11 Sept
Maastricht
0 : 4
Almere City
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
29 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 4
Almere City
Page 1 of 6

Jong Ajax

(Away)
18 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 0
Roda
14 Sept
Jong Utrecht
6 : 1
Jong Ajax
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 7 6 0 1 24:10 18
2 Almere City 8 5 1 2 18:7 16
3 Venlo 7 5 0 2 19:11 15
4 Waalwijk 7 3 4 0 18:9 13
5 Vitesse 7 4 1 2 13:9 13
6 Maastricht 7 4 1 2 10:15 13
7 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
8 Roda 7 3 3 1 7:5 12
9 FC Emmen 7 4 0 3 17:17 12
10 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
11 NAC Breda 7 3 1 3 13:15 10
12 Eindhoven FC 7 3 1 3 11:13 10
13 FC Volendam 7 3 0 4 17:14 9
14 Helmond Sport 7 2 2 3 13:12 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 12:23 7
18 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
19 TOP Oss 7 2 0 5 8:12 6
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 8:20 4
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)