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Almere City vs Willem II Prediction & H2H Stats

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Yanmar Stadion, Almere
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Bamba S.
Assist: Stam F.
61'
Sub
Jacobs Ja. In: de Nijs O.
Out: Jacobs Ja.
61'
Sub
Druijf F. In: Rijkhoff J.
Out: Druijf F.

AI Match Summary

Willem II in this Eredivisie 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Almere City
20%
Draws
15%
Willem II
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Almere City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Almere City average 2.15 goals a game right now, well clear of Willem II's 1.83.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Almere City taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Willem II, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Willem II have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Almere City Clean Sheet 20%
Willem II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almere City Willem II
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 15 15
Draws 2 5
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 2.15 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Eredivisie
Willem II vs Almere City
2:0
May 13, 2026 Eredivisie
Almere City vs Willem II
0:1
Apr 12, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs Almere City
2:1
Aug 22, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Almere City vs Willem II
0:1
Mar 29, 2025 Eredivisie
Willem II vs Almere City
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almere City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Willem II Compare

Top Goalscorer Bamba S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almere City 85 / 100
Willem II 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almere City Willem II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Almere City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Almere City's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Defensive concern: Willem II conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Almere City stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Almere City VS Willem II
2.25 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Almere City

(Home)
25 Sept
Dordrecht
3 : 2
Almere City
18 Sept
Almere City
1 : 0
Heracles
11 Sept
Maastricht
0 : 4
Almere City
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
29 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 4
Almere City
Page 1 of 6

Willem II

(Away)
19 Sept
Willem II
0 : 1
Sittard
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1
Willem II
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1
Willem II
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3
Excelsior
30 Aug
Willem II
2 : 2
Heerenveen
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Roda 2
Waalwijk 3
TBD -
Willem II -
Den Bosch 2
Almere City 6
TBD -
De Graafschap -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Quarter-finals
Waalwijk 1
Willem II 2
Almere City 5
De Graafschap 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Semi-finals
Willem II 3
Almere City 0
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Final
Willem II 4
FC Volendam 3