Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Almeria vs Al Nassr

World World

Club Friendly 2025 UD Almería Stadium, Almería
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Arribas S.
Assist: Leo Baptistao
9'
Sub
Al Amri A. In: Al Sharari N.
Out: Al Amri A.
17' Event
Ronaldo C.
Assist: Mane S.

AI Match Summary

Almeria in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Almeria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Almeria
30%
Draws
34%
Al Nassr
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Almeria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Almeria haven't matched Al Nassr's recent run of results.
  • Almeria are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Almeria Clean Sheet 11%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almeria Al Nassr
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 22
Draws 5 1
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.88 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 10, 2025 Club Friendly
Almeria vs Al Nassr
3:2
Aug 8, 2024 Club Friendly
Almeria vs Al Nassr
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almeria Compare

Top Goalscorer Embarba A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Arribas S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronaldo C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almeria 35 / 100
Al Nassr 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almeria Al Nassr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Almeria's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Almeria stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Al Nassr conceded in 46% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Almeria VS Al Nassr
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Almeria

(Home)
20 Jun
Almeria
1 : 2
Malaga
14 Jun
Malaga
0 : 0
Almeria
09 Jun
Almeria
3 : 2
Castellon
06 Jun
Castellon
1 : 1
Almeria
31 May
Almeria
1 : 0
Valladolid
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Al Nassr

(Away)
21 May
Al Nassr
4 : 1
Damac
16 May
Al Nassr
0 : 1
Gamba Osaka
12 May
Al Nassr
1 : 1
Al Hilal
07 May
Al Shabab
2 : 4
Al Nassr
03 May
Al Qadsiah
3 : 1
Al Nassr
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