Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Almeria vs Malaga

Spain Spain

LaLiga2 2025/2026 UD Almería Stadium, Almería
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Lopy D.
50'
Dotor C.
53'
Sub
Murillo D. In: Nino A.
Out: Murillo D.

AI Match Summary

Malaga in this LaLiga2 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Almeria
20%
Draws
29%
Malaga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Almeria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Almeria lately — more wins on the board than Malaga.
  • Model gives Almeria a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Almeria have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Malaga, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Almeria Clean Sheet 17%
Malaga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almeria Malaga
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 13
Draws 4 10
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.76 1.96
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Malaga
1:2
Jun 14, 2026 LaLiga2
Malaga vs Almeria
0:0
Apr 19, 2026 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Malaga
3:2
Dec 21, 2025 LaLiga2
Malaga vs Almeria
2:1
Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Almeria vs Malaga
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Almeria Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Baptistao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Malaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Chupe
1 Goals
Assists Leader Larrubia D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almeria 84 / 100
Malaga 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almeria Malaga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Almeria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Almeria scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Malaga has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Almeria remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Almeria VS Malaga
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Almeria

(Home)
23 Aug
Tenerife
1 : 0
Almeria
17 Aug
Almeria
3 : 0
Eldense
07 Aug
Cordoba
0 : 4
Almeria
04 Aug
Al Nassr
0 : 2
Almeria
01 Aug
Betis
1 : 0
Almeria
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Malaga

(Away)
19 Aug
Atl. Madrid
2 : 0
Malaga
12 Aug
Malaga
2 : 2
Fulham
07 Aug
AD Ceuta
2 : 1
Malaga
06 Aug
Malaga
4 : 2
Al Arabi (Qatar)
30 Jul
Malaga
2 : 2
Al Ittihad
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Almeria 4
Castellon 3
Malaga 2
Las Palmas 1
Final
Almeria 1
Malaga 2