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Portugal

Campeonato Nacional - Group H 2013/2014

Uniao Montemor

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Campeonato Nacional - Group H 2013/2014 encounter between Almodovar and Uniao Montemor promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Almodovar averages 0.9 goals scored and 2.4 conceded in recent matches. Uniao Montemor shows a form average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Almodovar, 3 wins for Uniao Montemor, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 27.04.14 ended in a 3:3 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.38 for Almodovar and 2.69 for Uniao Montemor, suggesting the primary value lies in the Uniao Montemor double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Almodovar

20%

Draws

51%

Uniao Montemor

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uniao Montemor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Almodovar picked up more points recently compared to Uniao Montemor.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 2.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 58%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Almodovar Clean Sheet 10%

Uniao Montemor Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Almodovar	Uniao Montemor
Matches Played	30	33
Wins	4	6
Draws	5	6
Losses	21	21
Goals Scored	0.9	0.97
Goals Conceded	2.4	1.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	5.00	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

27.04.14 Campeonato de Portugal - Group H

Uniao Montemor vs Almodovar

Possession: 41% - 47% Cards: 3 - 4

3:3

09.03.14 Campeonato de Portugal - Group H

Almodovar vs Uniao Montemor

Possession: 46% - 48% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

19.01.14 Campeonato de Portugal - Group H

Uniao Montemor vs Almodovar

Possession: 52% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

5:1

03.11.13 Campeonato de Portugal - Group H

Almodovar vs Uniao Montemor

Possession: 46% - 44% Cards: 2 - 1

1:4

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Almodovar

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Uniao Montemor

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almodovar 28 / 100

Uniao Montemor 48 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Almodovar Uniao Montemor

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Uniao Montemor or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.4%

1.92

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Uniao Montemor will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Almodovar 32%

Uniao Montemor 41%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

Almodovar will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Uniao Montemor's early runs.

Almodovar 28%

Uniao Montemor 54%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Uniao Montemor to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Almodovar tries to push forward.

Almodovar 29%

Uniao Montemor 51%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see Uniao Montemor increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Almodovar 30%

Uniao Montemor 48%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Almodovar's defense, opening up opportunities for Uniao Montemor's forward line.

Almodovar 26%

Uniao Montemor 56%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect Uniao Montemor to manage the closing stages, while Almodovar searches for late drama.

Almodovar 33%

Uniao Montemor 59%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Almodovar attacking → ← attacking Uniao Montemor

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Almodovar have found the net in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Uniao Montemor have conceded at least one goal in 88% of their last 33 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 4.50 goals per match.

Almodovar remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Uniao Montemor suffered defeat in 5 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 24

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.38

5.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Moura AC	14	8	4	2	26:11	44
2	Louletano	14	7	5	2	22:12	37
3	Uniao Montemor	14	6	7	1	21:14	37
4	CDR Quarteirense	14	6	5	3	25:16	35
5	Cova De Piedade	14	5	3	6	23:25	31
6	FC Barreirense	14	4	6	4	16:17	28
7	Esperanca de Lagos	14	2	3	9	10:28	15
8	Almodovar	14	0	3	11	10:30	10