Sport Picks
Altai vs Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakhstan
Premier League Vostok Stadium, Oskemen 
Match Events
7'
7'
Shimamura Y.
13'
13'
Sub
Jambor N. In: Gorshunov E.
Out: Jambor N.
34'
34'
Popov S.
Assist: Gorshunov E.
AI Match Summary
Ertis Pavlodar in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ertis Pavlodar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Altai lately — more wins on the board than Ertis Pavlodar.
- Model gives Altai a 34% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Altai Clean Sheet 10%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Altai | Ertis Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.45 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 18, 2026 Premier League
Altai vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:2
Apr 4, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Altai
1:0
Oct 17, 2025 First League
Altai vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:1
Jul 11, 2025 First League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Altai
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Altai Compare
Top Goalscorer Popov S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Top Goalscorer Shimamura Y.
1 Goals Assists Leader Yudenkov R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Altai 38 / 100
Ertis Pavlodar 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Altai Ertis Pavlodar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Altai Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ertis Pavlodar let in goals in 89% of their last 28 matches.
Altai found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).
Games between these two average 2.25 goals.
Altai has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Altai VS Ertis Pavlodar
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Altai
(Home) 18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ulytau
0 : 3 Altai
06 Sept
Altai
2 : 0 Kaisar Kyzylorda
29 Aug
Zhenis
1 : 0 Altai
19 Aug
Altai
1 : 2 Ordabasy
Page 1 of 7
18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
06 Sept
Altai
2 : 0 Kaisar Kyzylorda
19 Aug
Altai
1 : 2 Ordabasy
08 Aug
Altai
3 : 0 Kyzylzhar
19 Jul
Altai
2 : 4 Aktobe
Page 1 of 3
Ertis Pavlodar
(Away) 18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
09 Aug
Yelimay Semey
3 : 1 Ertis Pavlodar
25 Jul
Ulytau
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Ertis Pavlodar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26:34 | 26 |
| 12 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26:40 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
