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Altai W vs Ertis Pavlodar W

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

League Women
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Altai W play Ertis Pavlodar W in the League Women. Ertis Pavlodar W are favorites here. Recently, Altai W averaged 0.56 goals scored and 4.78 conceded. Ertis Pavlodar W averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. In past meetings, Altai W won 0, Ertis Pavlodar W won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 19, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Altai W and 2.94 for Ertis Pavlodar W. This points to a Ertis Pavlodar W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Altai W
17%
Draws
68%
Ertis Pavlodar W
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Altai W picked up more points recently compared to Ertis Pavlodar W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 2.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Altai W Clean Sheet 10%
Ertis Pavlodar W Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Altai W Ertis Pavlodar W
Matches Played 9 9
Wins 0 3
Draws 1 2
Losses 8 4
Goals Scored 0.56 1.33
Goals Conceded 4.78 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2026 League Women
Altai W vs Ertis Pavlodar W
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Altai W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Ertis Pavlodar W Compare

Top Goalscorer Islamgaliqi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Altai W 16 / 100
Ertis Pavlodar W 64 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Altai W Ertis Pavlodar W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ertis Pavlodar W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Ertis Pavlodar W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Altai W attacking → ← attacking Ertis Pavlodar W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Altai W scored in 33% of their last 9 games.

Ertis Pavlodar W let in goals in 78% of their last 9 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Altai W went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Ertis Pavlodar W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

1 Points in last 5 11
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
4.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1BIIK Shymkent W880076:024
2Tomiris-Turan W870122:221
3Kaisar Kyzylorda W851211:1316
4Kairat W841320:1013
5Atyrau W83238:1911
6Ordabasy W831410:2210
7Zhetysu W921611:247
8Ulytau W80171:331
9Kaspij Aktau W70160:361
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Aktobe W101000104:130
2Zhenis Astana W971140:1822
3Kyzylzhar W952229:1017
4Yelimay Semey W1051426:2016
5FC Astana W950417:2215
6Tobol W940511:2712
7Ertis Pavlodar W932412:1311
8Shakhter Karagandy W92165:527
9Okzhetpes W91088:513
10Altai W90185:431