Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aluminij vs Celje

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Sportni park Aluminij, Kidricevo
Sat, Jul 25, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aluminij host Celje in the Prva liga. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: Aluminij at 0.25 goals for, 0.88 against; Celje at 1.88 for, 1.63 against. Past meetings favor Celje slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 25, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.94 - 1.38) back Celje to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Aluminij
35%
Draws
49%
Celje
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Celje

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Medium Confidence
  • Aluminij haven't matched Celje's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Aluminij Clean Sheet 17%
Celje Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aluminij Celje
Matches Played 25 27
Wins 5 15
Draws 7 5
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 0.25 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Celje
0:0
Apr 26, 2026 Prva liga
Celje vs Aluminij
5:0
Mar 5, 2026 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Celje
2:1
Nov 1, 2025 Prva liga
Celje vs Aluminij
2:1
Aug 17, 2025 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Celje
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aluminij 31 / 100
Celje 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aluminij Celje

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Celje's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 27 matches.

Aluminij found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (25 games).

Solid form: Aluminij remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aluminij VS Celje
0.25 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aluminij

(Home)
02 Aug
O. Ljubljana
1 : 0
Aluminij
30 Jul
Dinamo City
3 : 0
Aluminij
23 Jul
Aluminij
1 : 1
Dinamo City
19 Jul
Aluminij
0 : 0
Maribor
16 Jul
Aluminij
0 : 1
Sheriff Tiraspol
Page 1 of 5

Celje

(Away)
04 Aug
Ararat-Armenia
2 : 1
Celje
01 Aug
Celje
1 : 1
Maribor
28 Jul
Celje
3 : 2
KF Egnatia
22 Jul
KF Egnatia
3 : 3
Celje
17 Jul
Celje
2 : 2
Mura
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nafta 3 2 0 1 8:4 6
2 Bravo 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
3 Maribor 3 1 2 0 4:1 5
4 Koper 3 1 2 0 5:3 5
5 Grosuplje 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
6 Mura 3 1 1 1 5:7 4
7 O. Ljubljana 3 1 0 2 1:3 3
8 Celje 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
9 Aluminij 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
10 Radomlje 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)