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Platense vs Marathon

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Excelsior, Puerto Cortes
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Sorto Caballero T. A.
37'
Fernandez J.
44' Event
Messiniti N.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Platense
20%
Draws
57%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marathon lately — more wins on the board than Platense.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Marathon taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Platense Clean Sheet 10%
Marathon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Platense Marathon
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 6 14
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.72 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Marathon
1:1
Apr 5, 2026 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Marathon
3:1
Feb 13, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Platense
2:2
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Marathon
2:2
Dec 19, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Platense
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Platense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gutierrez C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Messiniti N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Platense 10 / 100
Marathon 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Platense Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marathon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Platense scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Marathon conceded in 52% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Platense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Platense VS Marathon
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Platense

(Home)
18 Sept
Platense
0 : 2
Lobos UPNFM
12 Sept
Estrella
2 : 2
Platense
04 Sept
Olimpia
4 : 1
Platense
29 Aug
Platense
2 : 1
Atletico Independiente
23 Aug
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Platense
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Marathon

(Away)
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
29 Aug
Genesis FC
1 : 2
Marathon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marathon 7 5 2 0 12:3 17
2 Real Espana 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
3 Olimpia 7 4 2 1 15:7 14
4 Motagua 7 4 1 2 11:7 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Atletico Independiente 7 2 3 2 7:7 9
8 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
12 Juticalpa 7 1 0 6 5:17 3
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)