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Alverca B vs Louletano

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Ferreira L.
72' Event
Ferreira L.

AI Match Summary

Louletano in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Louletano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Alverca B
15%
Draws
57%
Louletano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Louletano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Louletano have won more games recently than Alverca B.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 68%
Louletano Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alverca B Louletano
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 14 17
Draws 5 8
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.72 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Alverca B vs Louletano
0:2
Oct 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Alverca B
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alverca B Compare

Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Louletano Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alverca B 41 / 100
Louletano 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alverca B Louletano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alverca B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca B scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Louletano conceded in 55% of 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: Alverca B stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alverca B VS Louletano
1.2 Goals Scored 1.75
0.8 Goals Conceded 1.38
40% Over 1.5 100%
40% Over 2.5 63%
20% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alverca B

(Home)
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
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Louletano

(Away)
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Castrense
0 : 1
Louletano
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)