Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alverca B vs SB Castelo Branco

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Octavio T.
30'
Octavio T.
86' Event
Cardoso M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Alverca B and SB Castelo Branco finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SB Castelo Branco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Alverca B
15%
Draws
42%
SB Castelo Branco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SB Castelo Branco come out ahead of Alverca B on wins alone.
  • Alverca B are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 68%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alverca B SB Castelo Branco
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 16
Draws 5 3
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.72 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alverca B vs SB Castelo Branco
0:1
Jan 12, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alverca B vs SB Castelo Branco
1:2
Aug 18, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Alverca B
1:2
Jan 28, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alverca B vs SB Castelo Branco
1:0
Sep 17, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Alverca B
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alverca B 86 / 100
SB Castelo Branco 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alverca B SB Castelo Branco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alverca B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca B found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

SB Castelo Branco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

SB Castelo Branco's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Alverca B VS SB Castelo Branco
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alverca B

(Home)
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
Page 1 of 6

SB Castelo Branco

(Away)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3
SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
3 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
4 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 O Elvas CAD 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Sertanense 3 0 2 1 3:5 2
12 Fazendense 3 0 1 2 5:7 1
13 Alverca B 3 0 0 3 1:4 0
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)