Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alverca B vs Sertanense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Teixeira D.
60' Event
Miranda O.
75'
Novais A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Alverca B
15%
Draws
17%
Sertanense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alverca B lately — more wins on the board than Sertanense.
  • 68% — that's where the model lands on Alverca B taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 68%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alverca B Sertanense
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 16 5
Draws 9 10
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.72 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alverca B vs Sertanense
1:1
Sep 29, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Alverca B
1:1
Mar 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alverca B vs Sertanense
0:1
Nov 5, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Alverca B
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alverca B Compare

Top Goalscorer Miranda O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

Sertanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Teixeira D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alverca B 95 / 100
Sertanense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alverca B Sertanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca B scored in 81% of their last 32 games.

Sertanense let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Alverca B remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Sertanense registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alverca B VS Sertanense
2.25 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alverca B

(Home)
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
04 Apr
Alverca B
0 : 1
GD Alcochetense
29 Mar
Alverca B
4 : 0
Portimonense B
22 Mar
Oriental
1 : 2
Alverca B
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Sertanense

(Away)
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
06 Apr
Sertanense
3 : 1
Alcains
29 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 1
Sertanense
16 Mar
Sertanense
0 : 2
Mortagua FC
09 Mar
Arronches Benfica
1 : 0
Sertanense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 O Elvas CAD 26 20 5 1 41:10 65
2 Fatima 26 14 7 5 30:12 49
3 Arronches Benfica 26 13 9 4 27:17 48
4 GD Peniche 26 10 9 7 31:23 39
5 Os Marialvas 26 9 10 7 30:28 37
6 Mortagua FC 26 8 13 5 23:21 37
7 Marinhense 26 9 9 8 24:21 36
8 Alverca B 26 9 8 9 28:25 35
9 SB Castelo Branco 26 8 10 8 23:21 34
10 SC Pombal 26 8 8 10 29:34 32
11 Uniao de Coimbra 26 6 7 13 26:44 25
12 Sertanense 26 4 9 13 23:33 21
13 Alcains 26 4 6 16 17:36 18
14 Pero Pinheiro 26 2 6 18 12:39 12
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)