Sport Picks
Match Events
3'
3'
Camara D.
Assist: Chiquinho
59'
59'
Sub
Amaral P. In: Vrousai M.
Out: Amaral P.
59'
59'
Sub
Galcik R. In: Clemmensen S.
Out: Galcik R.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal game between Alverca and Rio Ave finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alverca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alverca
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Alverca have managed 1.11 goals a game lately — Rio Ave are scoring more at 1.14.
- Alverca are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Alverca Clean Sheet 20%
Rio Ave Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alverca | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.11 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs Rio Ave
1:0
Apr 4, 2026 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Alverca
1:2
Nov 8, 2025 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs Rio Ave
1:1
Nov 23, 2024 Taça de Portugal
Alverca vs Rio Ave
2:3
Nov 24, 2019 Taça de Portugal
Rio Ave vs Alverca
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alverca Compare
Top Goalscorer Camara D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Rio Ave Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alverca 85 / 100
Rio Ave 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alverca Rio Ave
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alverca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Alverca scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.
Rio Ave let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Alverca went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alverca VS Rio Ave
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Alverca
(Home) 19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0 Rio Ave
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2 Braga
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1 Santa Clara
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1 Alverca
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0 Rio Ave
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2 Braga
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1 Santa Clara
15 Aug
Alverca
2 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
01 Aug
Alverca
1 : 0 Sporting CP B
Page 1 of 3
Rio Ave
(Away) 19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0 Rio Ave
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
06 Sept
Santa Clara
4 : 0 Rio Ave
28 Aug
Rio Ave
0 : 4 Sporting CP
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2 Rio Ave
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0 Rio Ave
06 Sept
Santa Clara
4 : 0 Rio Ave
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2 Rio Ave
09 Aug
Gil Vicente
1 : 0 Rio Ave
15 Jul
Portimonense
0 : 3 Rio Ave
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
