Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Amagaju vs Etoile de L'Est

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League Kamena Stadium, Butare
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Pacifique T.
Assist: Dimbumba J.
90' Event
Sebwato N.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Amagaju in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Amagaju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Amagaju
30%
Draws
31%
Etoile de L'Est
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Amagaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Etoile de L'Est at 0.67 per game, Amagaju at 0.59.
  • Model gives Amagaju a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Amagaju here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 21.200000000000003%
Amagaju Clean Sheet 68%
Etoile de L'Est Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amagaju Etoile de L'Est
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 0.59 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Premier League
Amagaju vs Etoile de L'Est
2:0
Apr 20, 2024 Premier League
Amagaju vs Etoile de L'Est
0:1
Dec 2, 2023 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Amagaju
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amagaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Pacifique T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Etoile de L'Est Compare

Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.33

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amagaju 68 / 100
Etoile de L'Est 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amagaju Etoile de L'Est

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Amagaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Etoile de L'Est's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Amagaju stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Etoile de L'Est has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Amagaju scored in 44% of their last 32 games.

Scoring Trends

Amagaju VS Etoile de L'Est
1 Goals Scored 0.33
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 33%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Amagaju

(Home)
18 Sept
Amagaju
0 : 0
Al-Merreikh
12 Sept
Gicumbi
1 : 0
Amagaju
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
30 May
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 0
Amagaju
22 May
Amagaju
0 : 2
Muhanga
Page 1 of 7

Etoile de L'Est

(Away)
15 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 2
Gicumbi
12 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 0
Kigali FC
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
11 May
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 3
Bugesera
04 May
Police
1 : 2
Etoile de L'Est
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
3 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
4 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
5 Al-Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 Marines 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
8 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Gorilla 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
11 Kiyovu 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
12 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
13 Rayon Sport 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
14 Al-Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
16 Kigali FC 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)