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Amagaju vs Sunrise - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Amagaju host Sunrise in the Premier League. This one's hard to separate. Sunrise have shipped 1.33 goals a game lately, while Amagaju have conceded 1.03 and scored 0.63. Head-to-head, Amagaju have won 2 to Sunrise's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 4, 2024, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 0.54 vs 0.60, favoring Amagaju. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Amagaju
35%
Draws
40%
Sunrise
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sunrise

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Amagaju have won more games recently than Sunrise.
  • Win probability leans Amagaju's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Amagaju Clean Sheet 20%
Sunrise Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amagaju Sunrise
Matches Played 32 27
Wins 10 7
Draws 7 7
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.63 0.85
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.54 0.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2024 Premier League
Amagaju vs Sunrise
1:0
Dec 8, 2023 Premier League
Sunrise vs Amagaju
2:1
May 5, 2019 Premier League
Sunrise vs Amagaju
1:1
Dec 22, 2018 Premier League
Amagaju vs Sunrise
0:2
Jun 18, 2018 Premier League
Amagaju vs Sunrise
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amagaju 36 / 100
Sunrise 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amagaju Sunrise

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sunrise let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Amagaju went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Amagaju scored in 47% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Amagaju VS Sunrise
0.88 Goals Scored 0.2
1 Goals Conceded 0.2
63% Over 1.5 20%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Amagaju

(Home)
18 Sept
Amagaju
0 : 0
Al Merreikh
12 Sept
Gicumbi
1 : 0
Amagaju
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
30 May
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 0
Amagaju
22 May
Amagaju
0 : 2
Muhanga
Page 1 of 7

Sunrise

(Away)
17 Sept
Rayon Sport
1 : 1
Sunrise
05 Sept
Etincelles
0 : 0
Sunrise
11 May
Sunrise
3 : 1
Marines
04 May
Amagaju
1 : 0
Sunrise
28 Apr
Sunrise
2 : 1
Gorilla
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
3 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
4 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
5 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 Marines 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
8 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Gorilla 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
11 Kiyovu 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
12 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
13 Rayon Sport 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
14 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
16 Kigali FC 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)