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Amarante FC vs Merelinense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 game between Amarante FC and Merelinense finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Amarante FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Amarante FC
30%
Draws
39%
Merelinense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Merelinense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Amarante FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Amarante FC taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 20%
Merelinense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amarante FC Merelinense
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 18 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.34 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Amarante FC vs Merelinense
2:1
Nov 27, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Merelinense vs Amarante FC
1:1
Apr 2, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Merelinense vs Amarante FC
1:1
Feb 12, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Amarante FC vs Merelinense
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amarante FC 42 / 100
Merelinense 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amarante FC Merelinense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Amarante FC scored in 80% of their last 35 games.

Merelinense let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Solid form: Amarante FC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Amarante FC VS Merelinense
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Amarante FC

(Home)
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1
Amarante FC
30 Aug
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Benfica B
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0
Amarante FC
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Merelinense

(Away)
20 Sept
Santarem
5 : 0
Merelinense
30 Aug
Merelinense
2 : 0
Atletico Arcos
16 Apr
Merelinense
1 : 0
Tirsense
08 Apr
Vilar de Perdizes
1 : 1
Merelinense
02 Apr
Merelinense
2 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Vianense 26 16 5 5 37:19 53
2 Amarante FC 26 14 9 3 43:25 51
3 Tirsense 26 14 2 10 39:25 44
4 Pevidem 26 13 4 9 37:30 43
5 Vila Mea 26 11 6 9 39:30 39
6 Vilar de Perdizes 26 8 12 6 33:32 36
7 Brito 26 9 8 9 21:28 35
8 Dumiense 26 9 7 10 34:35 34
9 Merelinense 26 8 9 9 32:32 33
10 Pedras Salgadas 26 8 8 10 27:28 32
11 Desportivo Moncao 26 7 6 13 34:45 27
12 Maria de Fonte 26 6 7 13 27:45 25
13 Sao Martinho 26 5 9 12 24:34 24
14 GD Braganca 26 5 6 15 20:39 21
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 (Promotion Group)