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Amarante FC vs Varzim Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Amarante Stadium, Amarante
Amarante FC Logo

Amarante FC

1 - 0
FT
Varzim Logo

Varzim

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Ventura
52'
Sub
Boloto In: Gunjo J.
Out: Boloto
52'
Sub
Pedro Clemente In: Chamito
Out: Pedro Clemente
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Amarante FC in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Amarante FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Amarante FC
20%
Draws
34%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Amarante FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Varzim haven't matched Amarante FC's recent run of results.
  • 34% — that's where the model lands on Varzim taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 16%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amarante FC Varzim
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 8 4
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.34 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Varzim
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Amarante FC
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Amarante FC
0:0
Aug 10, 2025 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Varzim
0:1
Apr 6, 2025 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Varzim
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amarante FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ventura
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Varzim Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amarante FC 28 / 100
Varzim 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amarante FC Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Amarante FC scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Varzim conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Amarante FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Amarante FC VS Varzim
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Amarante FC

(Home)
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1
Amarante FC
30 Aug
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Benfica B
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0
Amarante FC
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Varzim

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)