Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Amarante FC vs Varzim

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Amarante Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Amarante FC play Varzim in the Liga 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Amarante FC averaged 1.28 goals scored and 0.84 conceded. Varzim averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Amarante FC won 2, Varzim won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 4, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Amarante FC and 0.88 for Varzim. This points to a Amarante FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Amarante FC
26%
Draws
28%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Amarante FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Amarante FC picked up more points recently compared to Varzim.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 25%
Varzim Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amarante FC Varzim
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.28 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Varzim
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Amarante FC
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Amarante FC
0:0
Aug 10, 2025 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Varzim
0:1
Apr 6, 2025 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Varzim
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amarante FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ventura
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Varzim Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amarante FC 46 / 100
Varzim 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amarante FC Varzim

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Amarante FC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Amarante FC attacking → ← attacking Varzim

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Amarante FC scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Varzim let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Amarante FC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Varzim lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

60 Points in last 5 36
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Amarante FC1494122:1131
2Academica1484223:1328
3CF Os Belenenses1475225:1626
4Mafra1452717:2417
5Vitoria Guimaraes B1445516:1717
6Varzim1442813:1914
7Santarem1424813:2010
8Trofense142487:1610