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America de Propria vs Carmopolis

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Renato
50' Event
Jerfesson
82' Event
Iuri

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2024 game between America de Propria and Carmopolis finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward America de Propria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
America de Propria
20%
Draws
80%
Carmopolis
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Carmopolis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and America de Propria come out ahead of Carmopolis on wins alone.
  • Carmopolis are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
America de Propria Clean Sheet 25%
Carmopolis Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America de Propria Carmopolis
Matches Played 35 20
Wins 12 3
Draws 12 5
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1
Goals Conceded 1 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2025 Sergipano
Carmopolis vs America de Propria
1:1
Feb 1, 2024 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Carmopolis
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America de Propria Compare

Top Goalscorer Jerfesson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Iuri
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Carmopolis Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America de Propria 29 / 100
Carmopolis 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America de Propria Carmopolis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmopolis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America de Propria found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (35 games).

Carmopolis has conceded goals in 75% of their last 20 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Carmopolis's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

America de Propria VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

America de Propria

(Home)
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2
America de Propria
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1
Lagarto
Page 1 of 7

Carmopolis

(Away)
01 Mar
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Carmopolis
22 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
Lagarto
15 Feb
Carmopolis
1 : 1
America de Propria
10 Feb
Falcon
3 : 2
Carmopolis
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 7 0 2 16:6 21
2 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 12:4 20
3 Lagarto 9 5 3 1 15:9 18
4 Itabaiana 9 4 2 3 12:10 14
5 Dorense 9 4 1 4 10:12 13
6 Falcon 9 3 3 3 11:13 12
7 America de Propria 9 3 2 4 13:10 11
8 Carmopolis 9 2 2 5 6:10 8
9 Olimpico EC 9 2 1 6 7:12 7
10 Atletico Gloriense 9 1 0 8 6:22 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sergipano 2024 (Relegation - Play Offs)