Sport Picks

Stadium Background

America MG U20 vs Bahia U20

Brazil Brazil

Brasileiro U20
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

America MG U20 play Bahia U20 in the Brasileiro U20. It looks like a close match. Recently, America MG U20 averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. Bahia U20 averaged 2.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, America MG U20 won 2, Bahia U20 won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 14, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for America MG U20 and 2.13 for Bahia U20. This points to a Bahia U20 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
America MG U20
30%
Draws
39%
Bahia U20
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bahia U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • America MG U20 picked up more points recently compared to Bahia U20.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 2.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
America MG U20 Clean Sheet 10%
Bahia U20 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America MG U20 Bahia U20
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 18
Draws 9 6
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.63 2.9
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Brasileiro U20
America MG U20 vs Bahia U20
2:2
May 14, 2025 Brasileiro U20
Bahia U20 vs America MG U20
0:1
Aug 21, 2024 Brasileiro U20
America MG U20 vs Bahia U20
0:1
Jun 26, 2022 Brasileiro U20
Bahia U20 vs America MG U20
1:3
Oct 3, 2021 Brasileiro U20
Bahia U20 vs America MG U20
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America MG U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Enrico
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pedro Ribeiro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Bahia U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer David Martins
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nascimento R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America MG U20 30 / 100
Bahia U20 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America MG U20 Bahia U20

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bahia U20 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

America MG U20 attacking → ← attacking Bahia U20

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America MG U20 scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Bahia U20 let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

America MG U20 went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Bahia U20 lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 60
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
2.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Palmeiras U2019135154:2344
2Vasco U2019113536:1936
3Botafogo RJ U2019113532:2036
4Bragantino U2019104549:3534
5Athletico-PR U201995539:2532
6Santos U201994629:2431
7Cruzeiro (Esporte Clube) U201985635:2729
8Corinthians U201985631:2529
9Bahia U201985632:3029
10Flamengo RJ U201977528:2928
11Sao Paulo U201967627:2625
12America MG U201967625:3725
13Cuiaba U2019631019:2721
14Vitoria U201955920:3120
15Gremio U2019611231:4219
16Fluminense U2019541025:3119
17EC Juventude U2019531120:3918
18Criciuma U2019521224:4017
19Avai U201937924:4316
20Fortaleza U201929818:2515