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America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

America RJ play CEAC/Araruama in the Carioca 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, America RJ averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. CEAC/Araruama averaged 0.86 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, America RJ won 1, CEAC/Araruama won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 24, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for America RJ and 0.75 for CEAC/Araruama. This points to a CEAC/Araruama double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
America RJ
26%
Draws
37%
CEAC/Araruama
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: CEAC/Araruama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • America RJ picked up more points recently compared to CEAC/Araruama.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
America RJ Clean Sheet 27%
CEAC/Araruama Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 48%
Second Half Goal 50%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America RJ CEAC/Araruama
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 7 10
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.03 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.28 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 24, 2026 Carioca 2
America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama
0:1
Sep 6, 2025 Copa Rio
America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama
1:0
Sep 3, 2025 Copa Rio
CEAC/Araruama vs America RJ
0:0
Jul 6, 2025 Carioca 2
CEAC/Araruama vs America RJ
1:0
Jun 15, 2024 Carioca 2
America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America RJ Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

CEAC/Araruama Compare

Top Goalscorer Weverton
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America RJ 39 / 100
CEAC/Araruama 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America RJ CEAC/Araruama

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: CEAC/Araruama or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

America RJ attacking → ← attacking CEAC/Araruama

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America RJ scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

CEAC/Araruama let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 0.80 goals.

America RJ went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

CEAC/Araruama lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 37
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Americano1181218:925
2Marica1173111:724
3Resende1154216:919
4America RJ1151518:1416
5Perolas Negras1151511:1516
6Sao Goncalo1142511:1014
7Bonsucesso1142510:1114
8Olaria1134411:1113
9Cabofriense1133512:1312
10CEAC/Araruama1132611:1511
11Serrano FC1125410:1811
12Audax RJ1130810:179