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America TO vs Boston City

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

America TO play Boston City in the Mineiro 3 2024. America TO are favorites here. Recently, America TO averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.72 conceded. Boston City averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. In past meetings, America TO won 4, Boston City won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 12, 2024 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for America TO and 0.44 for Boston City. This points to a America TO double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
America TO
21%
Draws
21%
Boston City
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: America TO

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • America TO picked up more points recently compared to Boston City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 0.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
America TO Clean Sheet 31%
Boston City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America TO Boston City
Matches Played 39 34
Wins 24 8
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 19
Goals Scored 1.36 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.72 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2024 Mineiro 3
Boston City vs America TO
0:2
Sep 18, 2024 Mineiro 3
America TO vs Boston City
2:0
Oct 21, 2023 Mineiro 3
America TO vs Boston City
3:2
Aug 27, 2023 Mineiro 3
Boston City vs America TO
0:2
Aug 14, 2022 Mineiro 3
Boston City vs America TO
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America TO Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Goldeson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Boston City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America TO 58 / 100
Boston City 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America TO Boston City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick America TO Win (1)
Secondary Pick America TO & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16%
2.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

America TO attacking → ← attacking Boston City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America TO scored in 74% of their last 39 games.

Boston City let in goals in 79% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

America TO went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Boston City lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

80 Points in last 5 31
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Coimbra Esporte Clube862021:720
2Contagem843114:615
3America TO84139:613
4Boston City81255:185
5Social80263:152
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guarani-MG1090121:427
2Tupynambas1070329:821
3Inter de Minas1043319:1715
4Villa Real1041515:2013
5Pocos de Caldas1022612:208
6Tres Coracoes101095:323
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Essube851220:1016
2Uberaba851218:1116
3Paracatu842218:614
4Nacional Uberaba840417:1412
5Araguari80081:330
6Araxa00000:00