Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Amora vs Covilha

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Medideira Stadium, Amora
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Silva M.
10'
Calegari A.
11' Event
Niang C.

AI Match Summary

Covilha in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Covilha.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Amora
30%
Draws
29%
Covilha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Amora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Covilha have won more games recently than Amora.
  • Amora are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Amora Clean Sheet 68%
Covilha Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amora Covilha
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.97 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Amora
1:1
Feb 15, 2026 Liga 3
Amora vs Covilha
0:3
Jan 24, 2026 Liga 3
Amora vs Covilha
2:0
Nov 2, 2025 Liga 3
Covilha vs Amora
0:2
Jan 17, 2024 Liga 3
Covilha vs Amora
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amora Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Covilha Compare

Top Goalscorer Niang C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gomes J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amora 59 / 100
Covilha 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amora Covilha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Amora Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Amora scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Covilha let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Amora remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Amora VS Covilha
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Amora

(Home)
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3
Amora
01 May
Covilha
1 : 1
Amora
25 Apr
Amora
1 : 2
Lusitano GC
19 Apr
1º Dezembro
0 : 1
Amora
12 Apr
Amora
1 : 2
Caldas SC
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Covilha

(Away)
30 Aug
Covilha
0 : 1
Mortagua FC
22 Aug
Covilha
0 : 3
Atletico CP
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0
Covilha
08 Aug
Covilha
2 : 0
Santarem
01 May
Covilha
1 : 1
Amora
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