Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ancona vs Calcio Chieti

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Stadio del Conero, Ancona
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Caparros E.
Own Goal
40' Event
Ela N.
45' Event
Zini A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Ancona and Calcio Chieti finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ancona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Ancona
30%
Draws
39%
Calcio Chieti
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Calcio Chieti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ancona come out ahead of Calcio Chieti on wins alone.
  • Ancona are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Ancona Clean Sheet 20%
Calcio Chieti Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ancona Calcio Chieti
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 19 7
Draws 8 7
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.55 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Calcio Chieti
4:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Calcio Chieti vs Ancona
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Calcio Chieti vs Ancona
2:2
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Calcio Chieti
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ancona Compare

Top Goalscorer Zini A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bonaccorsi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Calcio Chieti Compare

Top Goalscorer Ela N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ancona 42 / 100
Calcio Chieti 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ancona Calcio Chieti

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ancona found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (33 games).

Calcio Chieti has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ancona remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ancona VS Calcio Chieti
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ancona

(Home)
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3
Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
26 Apr
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0
Ancona
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Fossombrone
1 : 2
Ancona
Page 1 of 7

Calcio Chieti

(Away)
03 May
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0
Maceratese
26 Apr
Vigor Senigallia
2 : 3
Calcio Chieti
19 Apr
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0
Giulianova
12 Apr
Calcio Chieti
0 : 0
Unipomezia
02 Apr
Ostiamare
3 : 0
Calcio Chieti
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)