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Ancona vs Fossombrone - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F Stadio del Conero, Ancona
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Giometti C.
15' Event
Manuzzi F.
26' Event
Belloni N.

AI Match Summary

Fossombrone in this Serie D - Group F matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fossombrone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Ancona
20%
Draws
33%
Fossombrone
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ancona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Fossombrone haven't matched Ancona's recent run of results.
  • Ancona are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ancona Fossombrone
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.57 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Fossombrone
2:3
Oct 7, 2026 Coppa Italia Serie D
Ancona vs Fossombrone
2:1
Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Ancona
1:2
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Fossombrone
1:2
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Fossombrone vs Ancona
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ancona Compare

Top Goalscorer Manuzzi F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Scarfo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Fossombrone Compare

Top Goalscorer Giometti C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Belloni N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ancona 68 / 100
Fossombrone 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ancona Fossombrone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ancona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ancona's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Fossombrone has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Ancona went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ancona VS Fossombrone
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ancona

(Home)
18 Oct
Ancona
2 : 3
Fossombrone
11 Oct
Giulianova
0 : 2
Ancona
07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1
Fossombrone
04 Oct
Ancona
2 : 0
Sporting Trestina
27 Sept
Angelana
1 : 1
Ancona
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Fossombrone

(Away)
18 Oct
Ancona
2 : 3
Fossombrone
11 Oct
Fossombrone
1 : 2
Termoli
07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1
Fossombrone
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1
Fossombrone
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquila Calcio 8 6 2 0 17:5 20
2 Teramo 8 6 1 1 20:11 19
3 Vigor Senigallia 8 5 1 2 17:12 16
4 Foligno 8 5 1 2 9:7 16
5 Notaresco Calcio 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
6 Ancona 8 4 2 2 12:8 14
7 Atletico Ascoli 8 4 1 3 13:10 13
8 Fossombrone 8 4 1 3 10:13 13
9 Montecchio Gallo 8 3 2 3 9:9 11
10 Giulianova 8 3 1 4 11:11 10
11 Lanciano FC 8 3 1 4 14:15 10
12 Termoli 8 3 1 4 6:7 10
13 Santegidiese 8 2 2 4 7:11 8
14 Pietralunga 8 2 2 4 5:9 8
15 Maceratese 8 2 1 5 9:16 7
16 Recanatese 8 1 3 4 11:14 6
17 Angelana 8 1 1 6 5:12 4
18 Sporting Trestina 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)