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Ancona vs Montecchio Gallo Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F Stadio del Conero, Ancona
Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Camilloni N.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between Ancona and Montecchio Gallo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montecchio Gallo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Ancona
35%
Draws
32%
Montecchio Gallo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ancona come out ahead of Montecchio Gallo on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Ancona Clean Sheet 20%
Montecchio Gallo Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ancona Montecchio Gallo
Matches Played 31 5
Wins 17 2
Draws 8 2
Losses 6 1
Goals Scored 1.52 1
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.90 0.92
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Montecchio Gallo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ancona Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.45

Montecchio Gallo Compare

Top Goalscorer Camilloni N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ancona 32 / 100
Montecchio Gallo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ancona Montecchio Gallo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ancona scored in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Montecchio Gallo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 5 matches.

Ancona went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Ancona VS Montecchio Gallo
1.13 Goals Scored 0.83
1 Goals Conceded 0.67
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 33%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ancona

(Home)
27 Sept
Angelana
1 : 1
Ancona
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2
Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1
Ancona
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1
Montecchio Gallo
06 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 2
Ancona
Page 1 of 7

Montecchio Gallo

(Away)
27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1
Foligno
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
2 : 1
Pietralunga
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1
Montecchio Gallo
06 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 2
Santegidiese

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Aquila Calcio 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Teramo 5 3 1 1 11:7 10
4 Foligno 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
5 Ancona 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Santegidiese 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
7 Montecchio Gallo 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
8 Lanciano FC 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Atletico Ascoli 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Fossombrone 5 2 1 2 5:9 7
11 Recanatese 5 1 3 1 6:6 6
12 Notaresco Calcio 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Giulianova 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
14 Maceratese 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
15 Sporting Trestina 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Angelana 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
17 Termoli 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
18 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2:6 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)