Sport Picks

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Angola vs Kenya

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship Moi International Sports Centre (Kasarani), Nairobi
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Paciencia J.
Assist: Beni Jetour
12' Event
Odhiambo A.
(Penalty)
21'
Nabwire M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this African Nations Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Angola
35%
Draws
35%
Kenya
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Angola average 1.55 goals a game right now, well clear of Kenya's 1.39.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this African Nations Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Angola Clean Sheet 26%
Kenya Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Angola Kenya
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 12 8
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.55 1.39
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2025 African Nations Championship
Angola vs Kenya
1:1
Jun 4, 2017 Friendly International
Kenya vs Angola
0:0
Jun 5, 2011 Africa Cup of Nations
Angola vs Kenya
1:0
Mar 26, 2011 Africa Cup of Nations
Kenya vs Angola
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Angola Compare

Top Goalscorer Paciencia J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Kenya Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Angola 33 / 100
Kenya 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Angola Kenya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kenya Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Angola scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Angola remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Kenya has conceded goals in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Angola VS Kenya
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Angola

(Home)
09 Jun
Angola
3 : 0
Central Africa
05 Jun
Angola
1 : 1
Mauritania
29 Dec
Angola
0 : 0
Egypt
26 Dec
Angola
1 : 1
Zimbabwe
22 Dec
South Africa
2 : 1
Angola
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Kenya

(Away)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
30 Mar
Grenada
0 : 3
Kenya
27 Mar
Kenya
1 : 2
Estonia
18 Nov
Senegal
8 : 0
Kenya
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kenya 4 3 1 0 4:1 10
2 Morocco 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
3 D.R. Congo 4 2 0 2 5:4 6
4 Angola 4 1 1 2 3:6 4
5 Zambia 4 0 0 4 2:8 0
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tanzania 4 3 1 0 5:1 10
2 Madagascar 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Mauritania 4 2 1 1 2:1 7
4 Burkina Faso 4 1 0 3 5:7 3
5 Central Africa 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 4 2 1 1 8:6 7
2 Algeria 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
3 South Africa 4 1 3 0 6:5 6
4 Guinea 4 1 1 2 3:6 4
5 Niger 4 0 2 2 0:3 2
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sudan 3 1 2 0 5:1 5
2 Senegal 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Nigeria 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
4 Congo 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)