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Anorga vs Lagun Onak Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Leiza B.
31' Event
Letamendia A.
53' Event
Segura E.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Anorga
30%
Draws
37%
Lagun Onak
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lagun Onak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Anorga haven't matched Lagun Onak's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Anorga Clean Sheet 11%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Anorga Lagun Onak
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 3 8
Losses 16 7
Goals Scored 1.17 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.73 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.77
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Lagun Onak
2:2
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Anorga
1:0
Mar 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Lagun Onak
1:1
Oct 28, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Anorga
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Anorga Compare

Top Goalscorer Segura E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carcedo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Lagun Onak Compare

Top Goalscorer Leiza B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Letamendia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.61
Avg xA / game 0.98

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Anorga 30 / 100
Lagun Onak 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Anorga Lagun Onak

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Recent resilience: Anorga stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Anorga found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Lagun Onak's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Anorga VS Lagun Onak
1.33 Goals Scored 1.88
1.67 Goals Conceded 1
83% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Anorga

(Home)
09 May
Anorga
1 : 2
Real Sociedad C
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
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Lagun Onak

(Away)
27 Sept
Santurtzi
0 : 1
Lagun Onak
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
Real Sociedad C
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Leioa
29 Aug
Lagun Onak
2 : 2
Beasain
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)