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Aparecida vs Leca

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Muale Nzanza D.
31' Event
Mesquita B.
41'
Flecha

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 game between Aparecida and Leca finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Aparecida
20%
Draws
36%
Leca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aparecida

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Leca come out ahead of Aparecida on wins alone.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Aparecida Clean Sheet 10%
Leca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aparecida Leca
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 9 16
Draws 4 10
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 1.37 1.87
Goals Conceded 2 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Aparecida
5:1
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Aparecida vs Leca
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aparecida Compare

Top Goalscorer Samuel Cazares
1 Goals
Assists Leader Teixeira D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Leca Compare

Top Goalscorer Muale Nzanza D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mesquita B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aparecida 29 / 100
Leca 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aparecida Leca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aparecida Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 6.50 goals.

Aparecida found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Leca conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Aparecida has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aparecida VS Leca
2.5 Goals Scored 2.25
3 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 50%
100% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aparecida

(Home)
18 Apr
Cinfaes
5 : 2
Aparecida
12 Apr
Aparecida
4 : 1
Florgrade
04 Apr
Leca
5 : 1
Aparecida
22 Mar
Aparecida
3 : 1
SC Vila Real
15 Mar
Rebordosa
3 : 1
Aparecida
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Leca

(Away)
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
09 Aug
Leca
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
29 Jul
Leca
0 : 0
Lusitania FC
15 Jul
Santa Clara
4 : 0
Leca
10 Jun
Leca
2 : 1
Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rebordosa 26 17 7 2 41:17 58
2 Leca 26 14 9 3 50:23 51
3 Cinfaes 26 10 10 6 33:21 40
4 Beira Mar 26 10 8 8 30:22 38
5 FC Alpendorada 26 9 11 6 30:22 38
6 Florgrade 26 9 10 7 28:28 37
7 Vila Mea 26 7 13 6 29:28 34
8 Uniao Lamas 26 9 6 11 27:33 33
9 SC Salgueiros 26 7 11 8 20:19 32
10 Anadia 26 7 9 10 27:33 30
11 Aparecida 26 9 4 13 36:51 28
12 GD Resende 26 6 10 10 27:31 28
13 SC Vila Real 26 5 12 9 23:30 27
14 CD Gouveia 26 1 4 21 14:57 7
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)