Sport Picks

Stadium Background

APOEL vs AEK Larnaca

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 GSP Stadium, Nicosia
APOEL Logo

APOEL

1 - 0
FT
AEK Larnaca Logo

AEK Larnaca

Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Laifis K.
61'
Sub
Cardero A. In: Ivanovic D.
Out: Cardero A.
64'
Vitor Meer
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Cyprus League 2025/2026 game between APOEL and AEK Larnaca finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward APOEL.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
APOEL
20%
Draws
56%
AEK Larnaca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • AEK Larnaca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
APOEL Clean Sheet 13%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric APOEL AEK Larnaca
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 15
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.47 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs APOEL
3:1
May 3, 2026 Cyprus League
APOEL vs AEK Larnaca
1:0
Mar 22, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs APOEL
1:0
Feb 8, 2026 Cyprus League
APOEL vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 27, 2025 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs APOEL
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

APOEL Compare

Top Goalscorer Diego Rosa
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

AEK Larnaca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

APOEL 35 / 100
AEK Larnaca 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
APOEL AEK Larnaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

APOEL scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

AEK Larnaca let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

APOEL went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

APOEL VS AEK Larnaca
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

APOEL

(Home)
19 Sept
Apollon Limassol
2 : 2
APOEL
12 Sept
Anorthosis
2 : 1
APOEL
06 Sept
APOEL
6 : 0
AEL Limassol
29 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 1
APOEL
22 Aug
Ol. Nicosia
3 : 3
APOEL
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AEK Larnaca

(Away)
18 Sept
Omonia 29th May
1 : 2
AEK Larnaca
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
06 Sept
Nea Salamis
1 : 4
AEK Larnaca
29 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 1
APOEL
21 Aug
AEK Larnaca
5 : 2
Omonia 29th May
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 36 27 6 3 88:24 87
2 AEK Larnaca 36 20 9 7 62:33 69
3 Apollon Limassol 36 20 7 9 52:41 67
4 Pafos 36 18 8 10 66:38 62
5 APOEL 36 15 7 14 53:45 52
6 Aris Limassol 36 14 9 13 61:45 51
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)