Sport Picks
Apolonia Fier vs Pogradeci
Albania
Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 Stadiumi Loni Papuciu, Fier 
Match Events
12'
12'
Lleshaj G.
53'
53'
Umejiego M. A.
81'
81'
Hoxhaj K.
AI Match Summary
Pogradeci in this Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pogradeci.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
30%
58%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pogradeci
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Pogradeci lately — more wins on the board than Apolonia Fier.
- Model gives Pogradeci a 58% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Apolonia Fier Clean Sheet 10%
Pogradeci Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Apolonia Fier | Pogradeci |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 6 | 18 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 17 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 28, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs Pogradeci
1:2
Feb 7, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs Pogradeci
2:2
Nov 3, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Apolonia Fier
1:0
Feb 17, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Apolonia Fier
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs Pogradeci
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Apolonia Fier Compare
Top Goalscorer Umejiego M. A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Pogradeci Compare
Top Goalscorer Lleshaj G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Pius F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Apolonia Fier 10 / 100
Pogradeci 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Apolonia Fier Pogradeci
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Pogradeci Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Pogradeci let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Apolonia Fier scored in 53% of their last 30 games.
Apolonia Fier has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Apolonia Fier VS Pogradeci
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Apolonia Fier
(Home) 03 May
Apolonia Fier
4 : 4 Burreli
25 Apr
Iliria Kruja
2 : 1 Apolonia Fier
19 Apr
Apolonia Fier
1 : 2 Besa Kavaje
11 Apr
Korabi Peshkopi
0 : 0 Apolonia Fier
04 Apr
Kukesi
2 : 0 Apolonia Fier
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Apolonia Fier
4 : 4 Burreli
19 Apr
Apolonia Fier
1 : 2 Besa Kavaje
21 Mar
Apolonia Fier
0 : 0 Lushnja
14 Mar
Apolonia Fier
0 : 1 Skenderbeu Korca
28 Feb
Apolonia Fier
1 : 2 Pogradeci
Page 1 of 4
Pogradeci
(Away) 16 Sept
Kukesi
0 : 3 Pogradeci
12 Sept
Pogradeci
2 : 1 Kastrioti
05 Sept
Iliria Kruja
0 : 0 Pogradeci
12 Aug
Pogradeci
0 : 1 Skenderbeu Korca
08 Aug
Pogradeci
4 : 2 Pelister
Page 1 of 7
16 Sept
Kukesi
0 : 3 Pogradeci
05 Sept
Iliria Kruja
0 : 0 Pogradeci
16 May
Teuta
1 : 0 Pogradeci
03 May
AF Luftetari
3 : 0 Pogradeci
19 Apr
Laci
2 : 0 Pogradeci
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laci | 33 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 60:23 | 79 |
| 2 | Skenderbeu Korca | 33 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 57:25 | 77 |
| 3 | Pogradeci | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 63:31 | 68 |
| 4 | Iliria Kruja | 33 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 32:33 | 45 |
| 5 | Besa Kavaje | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 41:43 | 39 |
| 6 | Kastrioti | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 44:57 | 39 |
| 7 | Burreli | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 27:45 | 37 |
| 8 | Korabi Peshkopi | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 31:39 | 36 |
| 9 | AF Luftetari | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 37:43 | 34 |
| 10 | Kukesi | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 31:50 | 31 |
| 11 | Apolonia Fier | 33 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 31:44 | 28 |
| 12 | Lushnja | 33 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 26:47 | 26 |
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 (Relegation)
