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Stadium Background

APR vs Etincelles

Rwanda Rwanda

Peace Cup Stade Amahoro, Kigali
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
APR
15%
Draws
36%
Etincelles
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: APR

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and APR come out ahead of Etincelles on wins alone.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on APR taking it.
  • APR have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor APR, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
APR Clean Sheet 68%
Etincelles Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric APR Etincelles
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 20 8
Draws 8 9
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 1.7 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Peace Cup
APR vs Etincelles
3:1
Apr 21, 2026 Peace Cup
Etincelles vs APR
1:3
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Etincelles vs APR
2:1
Dec 2, 2025 Premier League
APR vs Etincelles
2:1
Apr 20, 2025 Premier League
APR vs Etincelles
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

APR 59 / 100
Etincelles 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
APR Etincelles

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick APR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: APR scored in 82% of their last 33 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Etincelles conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: APR stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

APR VS Etincelles
2 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

APR

(Home)
30 Jul
APR
2 : 1
Vipers
27 Jul
Garde Republicaine
1 : 3
APR
24 Jul
APR
0 : 5
Mahia
31 May
APR
2 : 0
Gicumbi
27 May
Al-Merreikh
1 : 2
APR
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Etincelles

(Away)
30 May
Etincelles
2 : 1
Al-Hilal Omdurman
26 May
Gorilla
0 : 4
Etincelles
22 May
Etincelles
1 : 6
Gorilla
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
13 May
APR
3 : 1
Etincelles
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Bugesera 1
Etincelles 2
Gasogi United 1
APR 4
Gorilla 2
AS Kigali 2
Police 0
Rayon Sport 1
Semi-finals
Etincelles 2
APR 6
Gorilla 1
Rayon Sport 1
Final
APR 2
Rayon Sport 1
Etincelles 1
Gorilla 6