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Aquidauanense vs Costa Rica

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Sul-Matogrossense 2025
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AI Match Summary

Aquidauanense play Costa Rica in the Sul-Matogrossense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aquidauanense averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.96 conceded. Costa Rica averaged 1.02 goals scored and 1.05 conceded. In past meetings, Aquidauanense won 1, Costa Rica won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 5, 2025 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.18 for Aquidauanense and 1.56 for Costa Rica. This points to a Costa Rica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Aquidauanense
22%
Draws
41%
Costa Rica
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Costa Rica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Aquidauanense picked up more points recently compared to Costa Rica.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.18 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Aquidauanense Clean Sheet 15%
Costa Rica Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aquidauanense Costa Rica
Matches Played 28 40
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 15
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.21 1.02
Goals Conceded 1.96 1.05
Expected Goals (xG) 0.86 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.86 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Costa Rica
1:4
Apr 2, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Aquidauanense
2:0
Mar 25, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Costa Rica
1:0
Apr 7, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Aquidauanense
2:1
Mar 19, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Costa Rica
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aquidauanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Alessandro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.43

Costa Rica Compare

Top Goalscorer Fleitux B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Valber
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aquidauanense 36 / 100
Costa Rica 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aquidauanense Costa Rica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Costa Rica or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aquidauanense attacking → ← attacking Costa Rica

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aquidauanense scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Costa Rica let in goals in 70% of their last 40 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Aquidauanense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Costa Rica lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 48
0.86 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.86 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ivinhema961221:719
2Pantanal953117:718
3Dourados953117:718
4Operario MS951311:1216
5Costa Rica935114:1014
6Aguia Negra932414:1411
7Naviraiense923411:149
8Corumbaense92258:148
9Coxim92167:187
10Aquidauanense911712:294