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Aquidauanense vs Operario MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Everton Kanela
38' Event
42' Event
Joao Villela

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2025 game between Aquidauanense and Operario MS finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Operario MS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Aquidauanense
15%
Draws
24%
Operario MS
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aquidauanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Operario MS come out ahead of Aquidauanense on wins alone.
  • Aquidauanense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Operario MS have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Aquidauanense Clean Sheet 20%
Operario MS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aquidauanense Operario MS
Matches Played 29 45
Wins 12 22
Draws 5 13
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.34 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.41 0.91
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Operario MS
1:3
Apr 24, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Operario MS
1:3
Apr 3, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Aquidauanense
1:1
May 20, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Aquidauanense
3:2
May 1, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Operario MS
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aquidauanense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Operario MS Compare

Top Goalscorer Everton Kanela
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joao Villela
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.83
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aquidauanense 85 / 100
Operario MS 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aquidauanense Operario MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aquidauanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Aquidauanense has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Aquidauanense scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Operario MS conceded in 69% of 45 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Aquidauanense VS Operario MS
1.57 Goals Scored 1.25
0.57 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 88%
29% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aquidauanense

(Home)
02 Aug
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
Uniao ABC
26 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Aquidauanense
20 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 2
Aquidauanense
11 Jul
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
7 de Setembro
04 Jul
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
0 : 1
Aquidauanense
Page 1 of 6

Operario MS

(Away)
14 Jun
Betim FC
2 : 1
Operario MS
31 May
Operario MS
2 : 0
CRAC
23 May
ABECAT Ouvidorense
2 : 0
Operario MS
16 May
Operario MS
2 : 0
Ivinhema
09 May
Operario MS
1 : 2
Uberlandia
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)