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Aquidauanense vs Pantanal

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Sul-Matogrossense 2024
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Match Events

90' Event
Tiziu

AI Match Summary

Aquidauanense host Pantanal in the Sul-Matogrossense 2024. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Pantanal have shipped 1.38 goals a game lately, while Aquidauanense have conceded 1.67 and scored 0.67. Past meetings favor Pantanal slightly — 0-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 16, 2025, ending 3:2. The numbers (1.02 xG vs 1.52) point toward Pantanal. Pantanal in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Aquidauanense
30%
Draws
34%
Pantanal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aquidauanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Pantanal has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Aquidauanense.
  • Model forecasts a 36% win probability edge for Aquidauanense.
  • Cup tournament structure in Sul-Matogrossense 2024 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Aquidauanense Clean Sheet 15%
Pantanal Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aquidauanense Pantanal
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 9 10
Draws 6 12
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0.67 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.67 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.67 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Pantanal vs Aquidauanense
3:2
Mar 23, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Pantanal
0:1
Mar 17, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Pantanal vs Aquidauanense
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aquidauanense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.34

Pantanal Compare

Top Goalscorer Tiziu
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aquidauanense 35 / 100
Pantanal 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aquidauanense Pantanal

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aquidauanense scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Pantanal let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Aquidauanense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Pantanal lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aquidauanense VS Pantanal
0.67 Goals Scored 1.38
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 75%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Operario MS2
Ivinhema1
Aquidauanense2
Pantanal3
Dourados2
Costa Rica1
Coxim3
Corumbaense6
Semi-finals
Operario MS3
Pantanal2
Dourados2
Corumbaense0
Final
Operario MS3
Dourados2