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Aquila Calcio vs Maceratese Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

81' Event
Sparacello C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Aquila Calcio and Maceratese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aquila Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Aquila Calcio
30%
Draws
19%
Maceratese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aquila Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Aquila Calcio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Aquila Calcio are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Aquila Calcio Clean Sheet 20%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aquila Calcio Maceratese
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.34 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs Maceratese
1:0
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Aquila Calcio
2:1
Apr 3, 2016 Serie C - Group B
Aquila Calcio vs Maceratese
1:1
Nov 21, 2015 Serie C - Group B
Maceratese vs Aquila Calcio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aquila Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Sparacello C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Maceratese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aquila Calcio 85 / 100
Maceratese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aquila Calcio Maceratese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aquila Calcio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aquila Calcio has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Aquila Calcio scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Maceratese has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Aquila Calcio VS Maceratese
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Aquila Calcio

(Home)
27 Sept
Aquila Calcio
2 : 0
Teramo
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2
Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4
Aquila Calcio
06 Sept
Aquila Calcio
1 : 0
Termoli
Page 1 of 6

Maceratese

(Away)
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2
Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1
Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1
Maceratese
06 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 3
Teramo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)