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Araguacema vs Bela Vista-TO

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Araguacema play Bela Vista-TO in the Tocantinense 2 2024. Araguacema are favorites here. Recently, Araguacema averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Bela Vista-TO averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. In past meetings, Araguacema won 0, Bela Vista-TO won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 26, 2024 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Araguacema and 1.00 for Bela Vista-TO. This points to a Araguacema double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Araguacema
25%
Draws
15%
Bela Vista-TO
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Araguacema

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Araguacema picked up more points recently compared to Bela Vista-TO.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Araguacema Clean Sheet 23%
Bela Vista-TO Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araguacema Bela Vista-TO
Matches Played 32 38
Wins 12 16
Draws 7 9
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.44 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2024 Tocantinense 2
Araguacema vs Bela Vista-TO
0:3
Jan 22, 2022 Tocantinense
Bela Vista-TO vs Araguacema
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araguacema 59 / 100
Bela Vista-TO 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araguacema Bela Vista-TO

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Araguacema Win (1)
Secondary Pick Araguacema & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Araguacema attacking → ← attacking Bela Vista-TO

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Araguacema scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

Bela Vista-TO let in goals in 82% of their last 38 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Araguacema went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bela Vista-TO lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 57
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
4.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Batalhao642022:514
2Interporto633016:512
3Araguaia (TO)63219:511
4Sao Jose (TO)632111:1011
5Alvorada62137:97
6Taquarussu61054:213
7Uniao de Palmas60064:180
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Bela Vista-TO541017:113
2SD Sparta532010:211
3Guarai SC530212:69
4Araguacema521210:77
5Arsenal (TO)40041:90
6Colinas40041:260