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Araguaina vs Palmas

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense
Araguaina Logo

Araguaina

0 - 1
FT
Palmas Logo

Palmas

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Ribeiro D.
45'
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tocantinense game between Araguaina and Palmas finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Palmas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Araguaina
35%
Draws
32%
Palmas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Araguaina carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Araguaina a 33% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Araguaina Clean Sheet 68%
Palmas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araguaina Palmas
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.79 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 3.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Palmas
0:1
Apr 28, 2018 Tocantinense
Palmas vs Araguaina
3:0
Mar 31, 2018 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Palmas
1:1
May 22, 2016 Tocantinense
Palmas vs Araguaina
0:1
Apr 23, 2016 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Palmas
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araguaina Compare

Avg xG / game 2.35
Avg xA / game 1.53

Palmas Compare

Top Goalscorer Ribeiro D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araguaina 95 / 100
Palmas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araguaina Palmas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Araguaina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Araguaina's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Palmas has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Araguaina stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Araguaina VS Palmas
1.13 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 5
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Araguaina

(Home)
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0
Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
14 Jun
Araguaina
9 : 0
Galvez
30 May
Guapore
3 : 2
Araguaina
24 May
Araguaina
1 : 1
Porto Velho
Page 1 of 6

Palmas

(Away)
07 Mar
Palmas
2 : 5
Bela Vista-TO
21 Feb
Capital FC
1 : 1
Palmas
15 Feb
Palmas
0 : 1
Tocantinopolis
07 Feb
Guarai SC
0 : 0
Palmas
31 Jan
Araguaina
0 : 1
Palmas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tocantinopolis 7 6 1 0 10:1 19
2 Uniao Carmolandense 7 4 1 2 12:5 13
3 Gurupi 7 4 1 2 10:6 13
4 Capital FC 7 2 3 2 10:9 9
5 Araguaina 7 2 2 3 7:7 8
6 Bela Vista-TO 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
7 Palmas 7 1 2 4 4:10 5
8 Guarai SC 7 0 2 5 3:12 2
Promotion - Tocantinense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Tocantinense 2 2027 (Main)