Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arambagh vs Mohammedan

Bangladesh Bangladesh

BFL
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Chakma N.
30'
Sub
Bappy A. In: Joy Tanchangy S.
Out: Bappy A.
46'
Sub
Khan S. R. In: Islam S.
Out: Khan S. R.

AI Match Summary

The BFL game between Arambagh and Mohammedan finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mohammedan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Arambagh
15%
Draws
59%
Mohammedan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mohammedan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mohammedan come out ahead of Arambagh on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mohammedan's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Mohammedan here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Arambagh Clean Sheet 10%
Mohammedan Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arambagh Mohammedan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 12
Draws 5 9
Losses 21 9
Goals Scored 0.57 1.97
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 BFL
Arambagh vs Mohammedan
0:2
Apr 21, 2026 Federation Cup
Mohammedan vs Arambagh
4:0
Dec 20, 2025 BFL
Mohammedan vs Arambagh
1:1
May 1, 2021 BFL
Mohammedan vs Arambagh
2:1
Jan 17, 2021 BFL
Mohammedan vs Arambagh
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arambagh Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Mohammedan Compare

Top Goalscorer Dewan S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Uddin R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arambagh 10 / 100
Mohammedan 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arambagh Mohammedan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOH Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Mohammedan conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Arambagh scored in 37% of their last 30 outings.

Arambagh went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arambagh VS Mohammedan
0.88 Goals Scored 2.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arambagh

(Home)
23 May
Arambagh
0 : 4
Abahani Limited Dhaka
15 May
Bangladesh Police
2 : 0
Arambagh
09 May
Arambagh
0 : 2
Mohammedan
30 Apr
Brothers U.
2 : 2
Arambagh
24 Apr
Arambagh
1 : 0
Rahmatgonj MFS
Page 1 of 6

Mohammedan

(Away)
23 May
Mohammedan
5 : 0
Brothers U.
20 May
Bashundara Kings
3 : 2
Mohammedan
15 May
Rahmatgonj MFS
1 : 0
Mohammedan
12 May
Brothers U.
1 : 2
Mohammedan
09 May
Arambagh
0 : 2
Mohammedan
Page 1 of 6