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Aranova vs Albalonga

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
El Bakhtaoui F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G game between Aranova and Albalonga finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aranova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Aranova
25%
Draws
31%
Albalonga
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Aranova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Albalonga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% — that's where the model lands on Aranova taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Aranova Clean Sheet 68%
Albalonga Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aranova Albalonga
Matches Played 3 29
Wins 1 12
Draws 2 4
Losses 0 13
Goals Scored 1 1.66
Goals Conceded 0.67 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Aranova vs Albalonga
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aranova Compare

Top Goalscorer El Bakhtaoui F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Albalonga Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aranova 68 / 100
Albalonga 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aranova Albalonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aranova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Albalonga has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Aranova found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (3 games).

Aranova went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Albalonga's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aranova VS Albalonga
0.75 Goals Scored 2
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aranova

(Home)
16 Sept
Aranova
1 : 0
Albalonga
12 Sept
Budoni Calcio
2 : 2
Aranova
06 Sept
Aranova
0 : 0
Anzio Calcio 1924

Albalonga

(Away)
16 Sept
Aranova
1 : 0
Albalonga
12 Sept
Albalonga
3 : 1
Citta di Anagni
06 Sept
Atl. Lodigiani
2 : 3
Albalonga
10 May
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 0
Albalonga
03 May
Albalonga
1 : 4
Scafatese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ossese 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
2 Paganese 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
3 Sarnese 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
4 Trastevere Calcio 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
5 Certosa V. Campagnano 3 2 0 1 6:1 6
6 Monastir 3 2 0 1 8:5 6
7 Albalonga 3 2 0 1 6:4 6
8 Aranova 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
9 Unipomezia 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
10 Anzio Calcio 1924 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
11 Gelbison 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
12 Afragolese 3 0 3 0 1:1 3
13 Sarrabus Ogliastra 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
14 Budoni Calcio 3 0 1 2 4:6 1
15 US Venafro 3 0 1 2 1:3 1
16 Latte Dolce 3 0 1 2 4:8 1
17 Atl. Lodigiani 3 0 1 2 5:10 1
18 Citta di Anagni 3 0 0 3 1:9 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)