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Ararat-Armenia vs Shirak Gyumri

Armenia Armenia

Armenian Cup 2025/2026 Junior Sport Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Ndour A.

AI Match Summary

The Armenian Cup 2025/2026 game between Ararat-Armenia and Shirak Gyumri finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ararat-Armenia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Ararat-Armenia
39%
Draws
31%
Shirak Gyumri
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ararat-Armenia come out ahead of Shirak Gyumri on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal Armenian Cup 2025/2026 game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ararat-Armenia here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Ararat-Armenia Clean Sheet 68%
Shirak Gyumri Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ararat-Armenia Shirak Gyumri
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 19 5
Draws 7 6
Losses 7 19
Goals Scored 1.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 20, 2026 Premier League
Shirak Gyumri vs Ararat-Armenia
0:4
Apr 2, 2026 Armenian Cup
Shirak Gyumri vs Ararat-Armenia
0:2
Mar 4, 2026 Armenian Cup
Ararat-Armenia vs Shirak Gyumri
1:0
Dec 1, 2025 Premier League
Ararat-Armenia vs Shirak Gyumri
4:1
Aug 24, 2025 Premier League
Shirak Gyumri vs Ararat-Armenia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ararat-Armenia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndour A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Shirak Gyumri Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ararat-Armenia 41 / 100
Shirak Gyumri 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ararat-Armenia Shirak Gyumri

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shirak Gyumri has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Ararat-Armenia scored in 70% of their last 33 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ararat-Armenia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ararat-Armenia VS Shirak Gyumri
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Syunik3
Hayq1
TBD-
Cilicia-
Bentonit0
Andranik3
TBD-
BKMA-
Mika1
Sardarapat2
TBD-
Ararat Yerevan-
Urartu-
TBD-
TBD-
Van-
Araks Ararat2
Lernayin Artsakh1
TBD-
Shirak Gyumri-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Ararat-Armenia-
Pyunik Yerevan-
TBD-
FC Gandzasar2
Alashkert1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Noah-
1/8-finals
Syunik1
Cilicia0
Andranik2
BKMA0
Sardarapat0
Ararat Yerevan3
Urartu4
Van0
Araks Ararat0
Shirak Gyumri4
TBD-
Ararat-Armenia-
Pyunik Yerevan3
FC Gandzasar0
TBD-
Noah-
Quarter-finals
Syunik2
Andranik5
Ararat Yerevan3
Urartu5
Shirak Gyumri0
Ararat-Armenia3
Pyunik Yerevan3
Noah4
Semi-finals
Andranik1
Urartu2
Ararat-Armenia0
Noah1
Final
Urartu2
Noah4