Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ararat Yerevan vs Urartu

Armenia Armenia

Armenian Cup Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ararat Yerevan play Urartu in the Armenian Cup. Urartu are favorites here. Recently, Ararat Yerevan averaged 1.1 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. Urartu averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Ararat Yerevan won 1, Urartu won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Ararat Yerevan and 1.94 for Urartu. This points to a Urartu double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Ararat Yerevan
15%
Draws
57%
Urartu
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Urartu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Ararat Yerevan picked up more points recently compared to Urartu.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Ararat Yerevan Clean Sheet 10%
Urartu Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ararat Yerevan Urartu
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 14
Draws 4 7
Losses 19 9
Goals Scored 1.1 1.77
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Premier League
Ararat Yerevan vs Urartu
0:1
Apr 1, 2026 Armenian Cup
Urartu vs Ararat Yerevan
2:3
Mar 3, 2026 Armenian Cup
Ararat Yerevan vs Urartu
0:3
Nov 3, 2025 Premier League
Ararat Yerevan vs Urartu
0:1
Sep 19, 2025 Premier League
Urartu vs Ararat Yerevan
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ararat Yerevan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Urartu Compare

Top Goalscorer Gunko A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ararat Yerevan 27 / 100
Urartu 54 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ararat Yerevan Urartu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Urartu Win (2)
Secondary Pick Urartu & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ararat Yerevan attacking → ← attacking Urartu

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ararat Yerevan scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Urartu let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Ararat Yerevan went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Urartu lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 49
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38