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Aravaca CF vs CD Mostoles

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Tercera Division - Group 7 2016/2017
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 7 2016/2017 game between Aravaca CF and CD Mostoles finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Mostoles.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Aravaca CF
20%
Draws
36%
CD Mostoles
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aravaca CF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • CD Mostoles carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aravaca CF's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors CD Mostoles here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Aravaca CF Clean Sheet 17%
CD Mostoles Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aravaca CF CD Mostoles
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.33 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Aravaca CF vs CD Mostoles
0:2
Sep 25, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
CD Mostoles vs Aravaca CF
2:1
Apr 24, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
CD Mostoles vs Aravaca CF
2:0
Dec 20, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Aravaca CF vs CD Mostoles
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aravaca CF 57 / 100
CD Mostoles 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aravaca CF CD Mostoles

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aravaca CF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: CD Mostoles conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Aravaca CF's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Solid form: Aravaca CF remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS CD Mostoles
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aravaca CF

(Home)
11 May
Carabanchel
1 : 0
Aravaca CF
04 May
Aravaca CF
6 : 1
El Alamo
26 Apr
Collado Villalba
4 : 2
Aravaca CF
17 Apr
Aravaca CF
1 : 0
Galapagar
13 Apr
Trival Valderas
2 : 1
Aravaca CF
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CD Mostoles

(Away)
16 Aug
CD Mostoles
1 : 0
Burgos CF B
10 May
Atl. Madrid C
1 : 1
CD Mostoles
03 May
CD Mostoles
3 : 5
Siello
25 Apr
Pozuelo de Alarcon
2 : 0
CD Mostoles
19 Apr
CD Mostoles
1 : 1
Leganes B
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid B 38 23 4 11 63:40 73
2 Union Adarve 38 19 9 10 55:41 66
3 Mexico 38 16 15 7 49:28 63
4 CD Mostoles 38 16 14 8 62:41 62
5 Leganes B 38 18 8 12 57:45 62
6 Getafe B 38 17 9 12 54:35 60
7 Atletico Pinto 38 15 13 10 36:30 58
8 RSD Alcala 38 14 15 9 36:28 57
9 DUX Internacional de Madrid 38 15 11 12 52:40 56
10 Santa Ana 38 15 8 15 43:54 53
11 Villaverde San Andres 38 13 10 15 41:52 49
12 San Fernando de Henares 38 12 13 13 44:43 49
13 Alcorcon B 38 12 12 14 40:46 48
14 Pozuelo de Alarcon 38 11 15 12 40:35 48
15 Rayo Vallecano B 38 12 11 15 57:49 47
16 Trival Valderas 38 11 13 14 44:48 46
17 Alcobendas 38 10 14 14 29:37 44
18 Aravaca CF 38 9 11 18 36:64 38
19 Siello 38 7 10 21 21:57 31
20 Parla 38 4 7 27 21:67 19
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 1 2016/2017 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2016/2017 (Main)