Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Araz PFK vs Kapaz

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 SOCAR Polymer Arena, Sumqayit
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Franco B. A.
34'
Seyidov S.
36' Event
Andrade P.

AI Match Summary

Araz PFK in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Araz PFK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Araz PFK
15%
Draws
39%
Kapaz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Araz PFK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Araz PFK have won more games recently than Kapaz.
  • Model gives Araz PFK a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 20%
Kapaz Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araz PFK Kapaz
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 6 4
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 1.28 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Kapaz
2:0
Dec 9, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Kapaz
2:0
Dec 4, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Araz PFK vs Kapaz
0:1
Sep 12, 2025 Premier League
Kapaz vs Araz PFK
0:2
Apr 13, 2025 Premier League
Kapaz vs Araz PFK
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrade P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ramon Machado
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Kapaz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araz PFK 58 / 100
Kapaz 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araz PFK Kapaz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Araz PFK scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Kapaz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Araz PFK stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Kapaz's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Araz PFK VS Kapaz
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Araz PFK

(Home)
23 May
Araz PFK
3 : 2
Zira FK
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
09 May
SumQayit FK
2 : 1
Araz PFK
02 May
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Imisli FK
25 Apr
Gabala
1 : 1
Araz PFK
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Kapaz

(Away)
23 May
Kapaz
0 : 1
Neftci Baku
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
08 May
Sabah Baku
0 : 1
Kapaz
02 May
Kapaz
2 : 1
SumQayit FK
26 Apr
Shamakhi
2 : 0
Kapaz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)