Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Araz PFK vs Sabah Baku - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Gabala City Stadium, Gabala
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Mbina O.
68'
Sub
Nwachukwu C. In: Simic V.
Out: Nwachukwu C.
68'
Sub
Mutallimov T. In: Junior Almeida
Out: Mutallimov T.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Araz PFK and Sabah Baku finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sabah Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Araz PFK
20%
Draws
73%
Sabah Baku
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sabah Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Sabah Baku carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Sabah Baku a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 10%
Sabah Baku Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araz PFK Sabah Baku
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 19
Draws 4 4
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 1.03 2
Goals Conceded 1.93 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Sabah Baku
0:1
Apr 7, 2026 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Sabah Baku
2:4
Feb 8, 2026 Premier League
Sabah Baku vs Araz PFK
4:1
Oct 25, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Sabah Baku
2:2
May 3, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Sabah Baku
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araz PFK Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Sabah Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbina O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araz PFK 22 / 100
Sabah Baku 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araz PFK Sabah Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabah Baku Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Araz PFK scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Sabah Baku has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Araz PFK went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Araz PFK VS Sabah Baku
0.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Araz PFK

(Home)
09 Oct
Araz PFK
0 : 2
Kapaz
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1
Araz PFK
13 Sept
Araz PFK
2 : 2
Turan
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 6

Sabah Baku

(Away)
09 Oct
Neftci Baku
0 : 0
Sabah Baku
19 Sept
Sabah Baku
3 : 1
Imisli FK
14 Sept
Safa Baku
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
10 Sept
Manchester United
4 : 0
Sabah Baku
05 Sept
Sabah Baku
5 : 0
Zira FK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
2 Sabah Baku 6 5 1 0 14:1 16
3 Qarabag Agdam 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
5 Zira FK 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
6 Kapaz 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
7 Shamakhi 7 2 4 1 9:7 10
8 SumQayit FK 6 1 2 3 8:9 5
9 Gabala 7 1 1 5 3:11 4
10 Imisli FK 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
11 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 2:11 3
12 Araz PFK 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)