Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Araz PFK vs Zira FK

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 SOCAR Polymer Arena, Sumqayit
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Andrade P.
18'
Mammadov R.
33'
Ruan Renato

AI Match Summary

Araz PFK in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Araz PFK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Araz PFK
22%
Draws
60%
Zira FK
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Zira FK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Zira FK have won more games recently than Araz PFK.
  • Model gives Zira FK a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 16%
Zira FK Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araz PFK Zira FK
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 11
Draws 6 12
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Zira FK
3:2
Feb 27, 2026 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Zira FK
0:1
Aug 19, 2025 Premier League
Zira FK vs Araz PFK
1:1
May 25, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Zira FK
0:1
Feb 28, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Zira FK vs Araz PFK
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrade P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Santos F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Zira FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan Renato
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martins Junior
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araz PFK 19 / 100
Zira FK 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araz PFK Zira FK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ZIR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Araz PFK's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Araz PFK remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Zira FK conceded in 52% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Araz PFK VS Zira FK
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Araz PFK

(Home)
23 May
Araz PFK
3 : 2
Zira FK
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
09 May
SumQayit FK
2 : 1
Araz PFK
02 May
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Imisli FK
25 Apr
Gabala
1 : 1
Araz PFK
Page 1 of 6

Zira FK

(Away)
23 Jul
Paide Linnameeskond
1 : 0
Zira FK
16 Jul
Torpedo Kutaisi
0 : 3
Zira FK
08 Jul
Zira FK
3 : 0
Torpedo Kutaisi
23 May
Araz PFK
3 : 2
Zira FK
17 May
Zira FK
2 : 1
SumQayit FK
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)